ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS PREDICTION IN CONVENTIONAL BANKING COMPANIES IN INDONESIA FOR THE PERIOD 2020-2024 USING THE ALTMAN Z-SCORE MODEL

Dewi Pujawati Soekarno, Anny Widiasmara, Juli Murwani

Abstract


The study aims to assess the effectiveness of the Altman Z-Score model in predicting financial distress among conventional banks in Indonesia from 2020 to 2024. Financial distress refers to a situation where a financial institution faces instability, which can be an early sign of possible insolvency. The banking sector was chosen for this research because the failure of a single bank can lead to significant systemic risks. The study uses a descriptive quantitative method and relies on secondary data, specifically financial reports from 32 conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The adjusted Altman Z-Score model is used to evaluate and categorize the financial health of these banks into three categories: stable, gray zone, and vulnerable. The results indicate that the Altman Z-Score model is a dependable tool for forecasting the financial status of banks and provides useful insights for managers, investors, and regulators in making informed decisions to prevent insolvency.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Ahn, C. Y. (2001). Financial and corporate sector restricting in South Korea: accomplishments and agenda. Japanese Economic Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/1468-5876.00206.

Altman, E. I., Sabato, G., & Wilson, N. (2002). The Value of Bankruptcy Prediction Models: The Z-Score and Zeta Models. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(4), 943-957.

Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios discriminate analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy”. Papers and Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Detroit, Michigan December 28-30, The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.

Altman, E. I. (2000a). Predicting financial distress of companies: Revisiting the Z- Score and Zeta® Models. Updated from E. Altman, Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 1.

Altman, E. I. (2000b). Predicting Financial Distress of Companies: Revisiting the Z-Score and Zeta Models. Credit and Financial Management Review, 13(1), 22-27.

Altman, E. I. (2005). An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds. E. Merging Markets Review, 6(4), 311-323.

Altman, E. I., Haldeman, & R. G., & Narayanan, P. (1977). ZETATM analysis a new model to identify the bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking & Finance, 1(1), 29 54. Doi:10.1016/0378-4266(77)90017-6.

Apriani, M., Lestari, N. E. P., & Hidayat, A. (2023). ANALISIS LAPORAN KEUANGAN UNTUK MENILAI KINERJA KEUANGAN PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI. Jurnal Pariwisata Bisnis Digital dan Manajemen, 2(2), 82–89. https://doi.org/10.33480/jasdim.v2i2.4628

Carolina Verani, Marpaung Elyzabet I., & Pratama Derry. (t.t.). Efektifitas Penerapan Sistem Akuntabilitas Kinerja Instansi Pemerintah (SAKIP) pada Pemerintahan Daerah.

Crutzen, N., & Caille, D. V. (2008). The Business Failure Process. An Integrative Model of the Literature. Review of Business and Economic Literature, 3, 287-316.

Gyawali, S. (2023). Exploring financial distress through Altman Z” score: example of selected private commercial banks in Nepal. Journal of Emerging Management Studies, 1(1), 94–107. https://doi.org/10.3126/jems.v1i1.60165

Johnsen, T., & Melicher, R. (1994). Predicting corporate bankruptcy and financial distress: Information value added by multinomial logit models. Journal of Economics and Business, 46(4), 269-286. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/0148-6195(94)90038-8.

Kasmir. (2015). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Jakarta: PT RajaGrafindo Persada.

Koksal, A., & Arditi, D. (2004). An input/output model for business failures in the construction industry. Journal of Construction Research, 5(1), 1–16. Https://Doi.Org/10.1142/S1609945104000024.

Levratto, N. (2013). From failure to corporate bankruptcy:A review. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 2(1), 20. Https://Doi.Org/10.1186/2192-5372-2-20.

McKee, T. (2003). Rough sets bankruptcy prediction models versus auditor signaling rates. Journal of Forecasting, 22(8), 569-586. DOI:10.1002/for.875.

Meeks, G., & Meeks, J. (2009). Self-Fulfilling Prophecies of Failure: The Endogenous Balance Sheets of Distressed Companies. Abacus, 45(1), 22-43. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2009.00276.X.

Mendrofa, R., Wahyuni, A., Isnaini, P., & Aliah, N. (2024). Menilai Kinerja Keuangan Dengan Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Jurnal Bisnis Mahasiswa, 4(1), 35–43. https://doi.org/10.60036/jbm.v4i1.art4

Nurdin, & Irsyad. (2012). Peranan Analisis Metode Z-Score dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Suatu Perusahaan dan Kaitannya Terhadap Harga Saham (Studi Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Yang Go Public Di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Skripsi Fakultas Ekonomi Jurusan Akuntansi. Universitas Siliwangi. Terpublikasikan Melalui Link: Journal.Unsil.Ac.Id/Download.Php/. Diunduh Pada Tanggal 25 April 2016.

Ooghe, H., & De Prijcker, S. (2008). Failure processes and causes of company bankruptcy: a typology. Management Decision, 46(2), 223-242. Https://Doi.Org/10.1108/00251740810854131.

Paudel, N. P. (2020). Covid-19: Impact on the banking sector. The Kathmandu Post, 2020 July26.Https://Kathmandupost.Com/Columns/2020/04/26/Covid-19-Impact-on-the Banking- Sector.

Rais Sani Muharrami1, S. (2018). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan dan Rasio Keuangan Bank Umum Syariah dengan Metode Altman Z-Score pada Tahun 2011-2015. Ihtifaz Journal of Islamic Academic,Finance and Banking, Vol 1 no 1.

Ropega, J. (2011). The reasons and symptoms of failure in SME. International Advances in Economic Research, 17(4), 476-483. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S11294-011-9316-1.

Saeful Falah, A., Sari Dewi, L., & Latifah Mubarokiyah, S. (2022). Graduate Program Universitas Galuh Master Manajemen Studies Program ANALISIS LAPORAN KEUANGAN DALAM MENGUKUR KINERJA KEUANGAN (STUDI KASUS PADA PT. ARTHAVEST TBK YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE TAHUN 2016-2020). 6. https://doi.org/10.25157/mr.v6i1.7316

Sriminingsih, O., & Isnawati, I. (2024). The Impact of Financial Statement Fraud on Bankruptcy Banking Companies in Indonesia. Asian Journal of Management …, 04(02), 874–889. http://ajmesc.com/index.php/ajmesc/article/view/818%0Ahttp://ajmesc.com/index.php/ajmesc/article/download/818/522

Wu, W. (2010). Beyond business failure prediction. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(3), 2371-2376. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/j.Eswa.2009.07.056.

Wulandari, H. (2020). Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Financial Distress (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Sektor Perdagangan Eceran yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2015-2018). Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Semarang 2020.

Zefanya Aprilia. (2024). 20 Bank Bangkrut di RI Sepanjang 2024, Ini Daftar Lengkap & Alasannya. CNBC Indonesia, https://ww.

Zulaecha, H., & Mulvitasari., A. (2018). Pengaruh Likuiditas, Leverage, dan Sales Growth Terhadap Financial Distress. Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis, Vol 9 No 1 ISSN 2302-3449 e-ISSN 2580-9490.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Editorial Office:

Universitas PGRI Madiun

Kampus 3 Lantai 2

Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Jl. Auri no. 14-16 Madiun